Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
