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Amid the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.